Economy

Home Prices Fall 3.8%

Mar 28th, 2012
by edsmith.
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According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, January 2012 home prices fell 3.8 percent compared to January 2011. The report also indicates that prices fell from December to January in 16 of 19 markets tracked. Charlotte, N.C., was not included due to reporting delays. Phoenix, Detroit and Denver were the only 3 markets that experienced price gains. 8 of the 20 markets actually saw new lows in January. Those 8 markets are Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa. As illustrated by the graph below, the index shows that prices are back to early 2003 levels. January’s prices represent a 34% decrease from 2006 levels.

 

Conversely, the National Association of Realtors predicts that not only will home prices rebound this year, but that existing home sales will jump 7 to 10 % in 2012. If correct, that would represent the highest sales level seen in 5 years.

Metro area Change December-January Change from year ago
Atlanta -2.1% -14.8%
Boston -0.4% -2.8%
Chicago -1.9% -6.6%
Cleveland -2.0% -3.3%
Dallas -0.4% -1.2%
Denver -0.6% 0.2%
Detroit -1.1% 1.7%
Las Vegas -0.5% -9.0%
Los Angeles -0.8% -5.4%
Miami 0.6% -1.9%
Minneapolis -0.8% -1.8%
New York -0.8% -2.9%
Phoenix 0.9% 1.3%
Portland -2.1% -4.3%
San Diego -1.1% -5.3%
San Francisco -2.5% -5.9%
Seattle -0.7% -4.0%
Tampa -0.8% -3.8%
Washington 0.7% -0.6%
Composite-20 -0.8% -3.8%

Sources: S&P Indices and Fiserv.

Foreclosure and Delinquincy Rates Still High

Mar 14th, 2012
by edsmith.
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According to Lender Processing Services (NYSE: LPS),  there are now more than 6 million delinquent mortgages in the U.S.  A delinquent loan is any loan that is at least 30 days past due, which of course includes those currently in foreclosure.  LPS is a loan servicing conglomerate that maintains a database of roughly 40 million mortgage loans at a given time, which gives them considerable perspective in terms of national trends and statistics.  According to their calculation, the mortgage delinquency rate (MDR) is nearly 8 percent, which does not include mortgages that are in the foreclosure process. Therefore, the national  foreclosure inventory is now estimated to be nearly 2.1 million. The actual mortgage delinquencies then total 4 million.  Of those delinquencies, a staggering 44.3% are more than 90 days delinquent.

Florida Sales on the Rise

Dec 8th, 2011
by edsmith.
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Florida businesses posted record gross sales of nearly $80 billion for the month of September, the most recent month for which figures are available. This increase represents the first such monthly record since the “Great Recession” began.  While increases were noted through most urban areas of the state, conspicuously lagging was SW Florida. According to the Herald Tribune, Sarasota and Manatee Counties reported some of their worst performances since June 2011 and February 2010 respectively.

 

Northwest Florida counties posted large gains in bed tax receipts for October. Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walton counties reported collection increases  of 14.7, 10.9 and 42.7  percent respectively.  According to the Okaloosa County Tourist Development Council,  Okaloosa had the best October ever. Bed taxes for Okaloosa County are primarily generated through hotel and condo short term rentals in Destin and Okaloosa Island.

Florida Lottery Sales Surge

Dec 5th, 2011
by edsmith.
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Not all sales numbers are gloomy in the Sunshine State …  According to state officials last week,  The Florida Lottery is expecting a record year in sales, to the tune of $4.26 billion!  After many years of consistent growth,  Florida Lottery sales declined as the economy faltered in 2009.  

 

So what is behind the surge in ticket sales? Some say it is a sign that the economy is recovering. Others contend that consumers are simply feeling more desperate. One thing is certain … With retailer-giant Wal-Mart jumping on the Florida Lottery bandwagon, Lottery officials must be giddy. 

 

You would be hard-pressed to find a convenience store in Florida that does not sell Lottery tickets today. Supermarket chains in Destin, Ft. Walton Beach and South Walton like Winn-Dixie and Publix have long been on board, and most independents have jumped into the fray as well. The sale of a winning ticket can mean huge rewards for the vendors. In fiscal year 2008-09 Florida retailers earning a staggering $220 million in Lottery sales commissions.

 

The Lottery is not likely to go away any time soon. With states around the nation scrambling for dollars, shortfalls abound. Florida Lottery officials claim that the Lottery generates a whopping $1 billion per year toward education and college scholarships. That equates to 5% of Florida’s $20 billion annual education budget.

Occupy HUD

Oct 21st, 2011
by edsmith.
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One of our favorite economic prognosticators is a guy in San Francisco named Dick Lepre …  Dick was commenting on all the “Occupy Wall Street” cavorting and shared the following little nugget:

 

“For many potential homebuyers, the lack of cash available to accumulate the required down payment and closing costs is the major impediment to purchasing a home. Other households do not have sufficient available income to make the monthly payments on mortgages financed at market interest rates for standard loan terms. Financing strategies, fueled by the creativity and resources of the private and public sectors, should address both of these financial barriers to homeownership.”

 

Source: The National Homeownership Strategy: Partners in the American Dream, published by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, 1994

 

This was the directive from HUD, not Wall Street. Do the protesters care?

Oil Spill Dollars on the Way

Aug 26th, 2011
by edsmith.
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Our Florida legislators have seen fit to earmark $30 million dollars for economic development in NW Florida. The funds will be doled out to the tune of $10 million per year for the next three years to the eight counties most affected by the BP oil spill last year. The recipient counties include Okaloosa, Walton, Bay and Santa Rosa. NW Florida’s most prolific economist, Rick Harper will administer the funds through the University of West Florida Office of Economic Development.

 

The Oil Spill Recovery Act will place NW Florida front and center in terms of any state sponsored incentive programs. According to Harper, “This money can then work in concert with existing state incentive funding and local dollars to give more firepower to economic development opportunities. Counties outside the eight-county region will also benefit, by providing residential areas and helping meet increased regional demand for labor.”

Florida made $63 million last year selling our personal information!

Jul 22nd, 2011
by edsmith.
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Channel 10 Miami reported that the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles has been selling our names, addresses, dates of birth and a list of the vehicles that we drive …  $63 million in “legally” disclosed information and a Florida judge has even validated the practice!

 

So, who gets all this information and what are they doing with it?  According to Ann Howard of the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles,  “Per federal mandate, there are companies that are entitled to this information. Insurance companies, for example, are entitled to this information. Employers are entitled to this information.”

 

Companies that buy this information from the state are then re-selling the data. Companies like Lexus Nexus and the nefarious sounding Shadow Soft.  The information is not supposed to be sold to any company that would utilize the information for marketing or solicitation purposes. And although Florida is not selling our driver’s license and social security numbers (yet), many are uncomfortable about this information being so freely disseminated.

 

One possible benefit … If a vehicle manufacturer issues a recall, the Florida database could help identify the whereabouts of the current vehicle owners. That information could be uploaded to the manufacturer who could in turn notify the owners.

 

Casinos in Florida?

Jun 27th, 2011
by edsmith.
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Once again, state leaders are discussing their options with regard to Las Vegas-style resort casinos in Florida. According to the Miami Herald, “South Florida voters have grown accustomed to, and tolerant of, gambling.” Florida is already in the gaming business say proponents. And at nearly $2 billion annually, gaming is already a huge industry in Florida. In fact, Florida is considered the fifth largest gaming state in the U.S. The industry employs nearly 8,800 people in Miami-Dade and Broward counties alone.

During the late 40’s through early 50’s gambling thrived in Okaloosa County. At the time, Okaloosa was said to have “more neon than any other place east of the Mississippi”. No one except some fisherman and shrimpers wanted to live in Destin back then.Most notable of the area casinos was the Shalimar Club on Eglin Parkway just north of Fort Walton Beach. Easily accessible from the gate at Eglin AFB, business was said to have been “robust”. At any rate, adverse publicity (eminating from the Tampa Tribune) eventually forced then governor Fuller Warren to remove the Okaloosa Sheriff from office for failure to enforce anti-gaming laws.

While there seems to be little support for legalized gaming in Northwest Florida, with state coffers reeling from a weakened economy, we expect to be hearing more about this over the course of the coming year.

Call Ed and Terri Smith at RE/MAX Coastal Properties for more!  850-837-5500 x1 or via email at smith@realtor.com  or vist  http://www.DestinFloridaRealEstate.com

Brighter in Florida

Jun 24th, 2011
by edsmith.
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According to Florida Trend, the revenue at the 150 largest public companies and the 200 largest private companies in the state rose more than 8.5%, which is a reflection of the improving economic climate in Florida. The Florida Trend article went on to state that new home constuction continues to lag due to lower resale prices and “a glut of supply”. Of the 13 private companies showing the biggest drop in the rankings, 10 are real estate related.

Consistent with that assessment,  new construction simply cannot compete with resale pricing here in the Destin and Emerald Coast real estate markets. You can buy a great home today for much less than the replacement cost, i.e., cost of construction.

For information on short sales, bank foreclosures and general real estate topics, please visit www.FloridaBrokers.com  or email us at smith@realtor.com

Florida Population Still Growing

Jun 20th, 2011
by edsmith.
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According to a study by the University of Florida at Gainsville, Florida saw the third-largest numeric increase and the eighth-largest percentage increase in population in the country between 2000 and 2010. That represents an increase of 17.6 percent and brought the state’s total up to 18,801,310.Okaloosa County and City of Destin growth rates mirror that of Florida – Okaloosa County now has a population of more than 196,200; Destin weighs in at 12,300. Of course, the Destin population swells to more than 60,000 during tourist season.

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